The 2026 political party primaries have exposed gaps between Nigeria’s electoral reforms and the actual practice of candidate selection, with elite influence, limited transparency, high nomination costs and weak enforcement mechanisms emerging as key concerns ahead of the 2027 general elections.
This was the central finding of the European Union Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria Phase II (EU-SDGN II) assessment of the 2026 political party primaries, presented at a round-table dialogue on electoral credibility in Abuja.
The assessment, titled “Before the Ballot: Safeguarding Electoral Credibility in Nigeria’s 2026 Party Primaries,” examined the conduct of party primaries, subsequent disputes, substitutions and litigation, as well as the candidate lists published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on September 12.
Presenting the findings were EU-SDGN representatives Ralph-Michael Peters and Florence Ganoux, alongside members of the assessment team, including French electoral and legal expert Fabulous Penoud.
The team said it observed primaries for about a month in selected locations, analysed media reports and conducted interviews with political stakeholders and analysts. It stressed, however, that the exercise did not cover every party primary in the country.
According to the assessment, party primaries should be viewed as an integral part of the electoral process because they determine who gets the opportunity to contest under a party platform and, ultimately, the choices available to voters.
Reforms changed the process, but not the balance of control
The assessment said the 2026 electoral framework introduced significant procedural changes, including direct primaries, consensus arrangements, digital membership registers and additional documentary requirements.
However, it found that the reforms did not necessarily translate into greater democratic control by ordinary party members.
According to the report, decisive stages—including access to nomination forms, screening, membership records, accreditation, venues, internal appeals, certification and submission of candidates to INEC—remained substantially controlled by party structures.
“Gatekeeping shifted, but elite and patronage networks retain the control,” the assessment stated.
The report said many of the documents needed to verify compliance with party rules and electoral requirements were not readily accessible to aspirants, members or observers, limiting their ability to independently establish how nominations were conducted.
It also identified high nomination fees as a significant barrier to participation. Presidential nomination forms reportedly cost as much as ₦100 million, while the APC fixed its Senate and House of Representatives nomination fees at ₦20 million and ₦10 million respectively.
The assessment said such financial requirements could increase aspirants’ dependence on wealthy sponsors and political networks, with particular implications for women, young people and persons with disabilities.
INEC monitored, but enforcement remained unclear
The observers said INEC officials were present at many of the primaries they monitored, including exercises in the FCT, Ibadan and Lagos, and gathered information about the conduct of the processes.
However, they said the monitoring findings were largely not made publicly available, making it difficult to determine whether identified breaches resulted in corrective action.
The report described INEC as becoming “more evidentiary than corrective”, arguing that while the commission collected information, the route from identifying non-compliance to imposing a timely consequence remained unclear.
The assessors also pointed to gaps surrounding violations of procedural requirements, including changes to the venue, date or time of primaries.
An example was drawn from an APC governorship direct primary observed in Ibadan North, Oyo State, where the assessment team said the venue had been changed shortly before the exercise.
According to the observers, some party members went to the originally announced venue while others learnt of the new location and moved there.
The assessment said the episode demonstrated how unequal access to information could affect participation, particularly where eligible members depend on timely information to attend and exercise their rights.
Selection did not necessarily end on primary day
The assessment also highlighted the importance of what happens after the actual primary.
It said appeals, certification, submission of candidates to INEC and subsequent litigation could alter or determine which nominations ultimately entered the official electoral process.
The report therefore called for a “verifiable nomination trail” that would allow stakeholders to trace the emergence of a candidate from membership and accreditation through the primary, result declaration, appeals and final publication by INEC.
It said such documentation should make clear who participated, how votes or decisions were recorded, whether an appeal altered the outcome and why any candidate was subsequently replaced.
The assessment linked these gaps to the increasing judicialisation of political competition, noting that disputes arising from party nominations frequently move from internal party structures to the courts.
Women remain under-represented
The assessment also highlighted the limited representation of women among candidates for the 2027 elections.
It reported that women accounted for 346 of the 3,560 House of Representatives candidates, or 9.7 per cent, compared with 9.2 per cent in 2023.
It further noted that 160 constituencies had no female candidate.
For the assessors, the figures indicate that formal opportunities created by electoral reforms have yet to produce significant improvements in women’s representation.
Candidate field and legal uncertainty
The report said the candidate lists published by INEC on September 12 contained 18 presidential tickets, 1,303 Senate candidates and 3,560 House of Representatives candidates.
It noted that every National Assembly seat had more than one candidate, although some parties did not field candidates in every constituency.
The assessment also examined ongoing litigation relating to electoral and nomination rules, warning that pending cases could still result in amendments to candidate lists.
It cited the continuing legal disputes as another indication of the extent to which candidate selection has become intertwined with the judicial process.
Public confidence and security challenges
The findings were presented against a backdrop of concerns over public confidence in democratic institutions.
The assessment cited Afrobarometer findings indicating that 64 per cent of Nigerians preferred democracy to any other form of government, while more than 80 per cent expressed distrust in some key political and electoral institutions.
It also cited 82.4 per cent as the proportion of Nigerians who were not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with how democracy works in the country.
The assessors said credible and transparent primaries could therefore serve as an opportunity to strengthen confidence before the 2027 elections.
Security challenges were identified as another factor affecting political participation, particularly in areas where insecurity restricts movement and political activities or limits voters’ access to information about candidates.
What needs to change before 2027
The assessment stressed that the shortcomings identified in the primaries did not determine the outcome or credibility of the 2027 elections, noting that there was still room for corrective measures.
It recommended that political parties provide affected aspirants with reasons and relevant records when selections or candidate replacements are disputed.
INEC was urged to publish relevant primary-monitoring findings and explain changes to candidate lists, while the judiciary was encouraged to issue reasoned judgments early enough to allow their implementation before polling.
The report also called on political parties to translate their Peace Accord commitments into practical guidance for officials and supporters, while security agencies should provide impartial protection and communicate responses to reported incidents.
For the longer term, it recommended a review of nomination fees, independent internal appeal mechanisms within parties, publication of party rules and primary results, enforceable measures to improve the participation of women, young people and persons with disabilities, and a joint review of nomination and litigation timelines by the National Assembly, INEC and the judiciary.
The EU-SDGN II assessment ultimately presents the 2026 primaries as an early test of the credibility of the 2027 electoral cycle.
Its central message is that the integrity of the election cannot begin and end at the polling unit: the credibility of the ballot is also shaped by how transparently and fairly candidates are selected before they get there.
